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Brazil doesn't have tsunamis... (17.20)

Taylor: We're getting hit by a tsunami.

Rudy: Shit. Did the Fed hike?

Taylor: No. Actual tsunami. In Brazil.

Mafee: No way. Brazil doesn't have tsunamis. The worst they get is ressacas do mar. "Sea hangover.” Am I the only person here who's loved a Portuguese woman?

Taylor: Brazil does not normally have tsunamis. Black swan event.

Everready: How heavy are we in Brazil?

Wags: Jim Morrison at the end.

ressacas do mar. "Sea hangover”, according to Mafee. Literay translation is probably ‘back sweep.’ I have no idea what all this means, frankly.

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).

  3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.

James Douglas Morrison (December 8, 1943 – July 3, 1971) was an American singer, songwriter and poet, best remembered as the lead vocalist of the rock band the Doors. Due to his poetic lyrics, distinctive voice, wild personality, performances, and the dramatic circumstances surrounding his life and early death, Morrison is regarded by music critics and fans as one of the most iconic and influential frontmen in rock music history. Since his death, his fame has endured as one of popular culture's most rebellious and oft-displayed icons, representing the generation gap and youth counterculture. Morrison co-founded the Doors during the summer of 1965 in Venice, California. The band spent two years in obscurity until shooting to prominence with their #1 single in the United States, "Light My Fire," taken from their self-titled debut album. Morrison recorded a total of six studio albums with the Doors, all of which sold well and received critical acclaim. Though the Doors recorded two more albums after Morrison died, his death severely affected the band's fortunes, and they split up in 1973.

In 1993, Jim Morrison, as a member of the Doors, was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Morrison was also well known for improvising spoken word poetry passages while the band played live. Morrison was ranked #47 on Rolling Stone's list of the "100 Greatest Singers of All Time," and number 22 on Classic Rock magazine's "50 Greatest Singers in Rock." Ray Manzarek, who co-founded the Doors with him, said Morrison "embodied hippie counterculture rebellion." Morrison developed an alcohol dependency during the 1960s, which at times affected his performances on stage. He died unexpectedly at the age of 27 in Paris. As no autopsy was performed, the cause of Morrison's death remains unknown.

Wags is obviously referring to the fact that by the time of his death, Jim Morrison had gotten fat. Not sure if that’s really the case though…